Courtesy of Peter Zeihan's works, pulled from 4 of his books and several lengthy interviews (I will post some of those in subsequent comments).
1) China imports 85% of their energy, most of which has to pass through the Persian Gulf.
2) Xi Jinping has one of the most complete cults of personality in recent history. So much so that he has more or less executed anyone for providing even the most trivially inconvenient news. As a result, he no longer gets....any reasonably accurate news or updates on world events whatsoever.
3) China has less than a 1/3 the global average of arable land per capita.
4) China's military is an army of combat virgins, who haven't really seen any real combat since 1975 with the zenith of the Vietnam War.
5) As a result of the 1 child policy (and sex-selective abortions), China's breeding age population has the worst gender imbalance of just about any country in recorded history.
6) Even by their own estimates, recent data has conclude that they've overcounted their population by at least 100 million.
7) With regards to agriculture, China spends more per calorie of output than any other country on the planet.
8) The most liberal estimates claim that China's population will be cut in half by 2070 on account of how severe their aging crisis is. More recent estimates put that number as close as 2050 (ie, a net loss of....650,000,000 people in the coming 3 decades).
9) Wages in China have already risen 15 fold since 1999. That sounds great...until you realize it's driven primarily by severe labor shortages.
10) Of the few breeding age males and females they do have, their current cultural setup more or less isolates them, leading to even lower prospects for demographic recovery.
11) What little agricultural output they do have is dependent on chemical fertilizers of which they are by far the world's largest importer of.
12) Most of those chemical fertilizers arrive via, wait for it.....trading ports in the Black Sea.
13) Just because they are the archetype of a net exporter of manufacturing goods does not mean that they aren't a net importer of virtually all of the most important and expensive raw materials inputs required for production.
1) China imports 85% of their energy, most of which has to pass through the Persian Gulf.
2) Xi Jinping has one of the most complete cults of personality in recent history. So much so that he has more or less executed anyone for providing even the most trivially inconvenient news. As a result, he no longer gets....any reasonably accurate news or updates on world events whatsoever.
3) China has less than a 1/3 the global average of arable land per capita.
4) China's military is an army of combat virgins, who haven't really seen any real combat since 1975 with the zenith of the Vietnam War.
5) As a result of the 1 child policy (and sex-selective abortions), China's breeding age population has the worst gender imbalance of just about any country in recorded history.
6) Even by their own estimates, recent data has conclude that they've overcounted their population by at least 100 million.
7) With regards to agriculture, China spends more per calorie of output than any other country on the planet.
8) The most liberal estimates claim that China's population will be cut in half by 2070 on account of how severe their aging crisis is. More recent estimates put that number as close as 2050 (ie, a net loss of....650,000,000 people in the coming 3 decades).
9) Wages in China have already risen 15 fold since 1999. That sounds great...until you realize it's driven primarily by severe labor shortages.
10) Of the few breeding age males and females they do have, their current cultural setup more or less isolates them, leading to even lower prospects for demographic recovery.
11) What little agricultural output they do have is dependent on chemical fertilizers of which they are by far the world's largest importer of.
12) Most of those chemical fertilizers arrive via, wait for it.....trading ports in the Black Sea.
13) Just because they are the archetype of a net exporter of manufacturing goods does not mean that they aren't a net importer of virtually all of the most important and expensive raw materials inputs required for production.
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